AD International United States in 2026
Growth under an oil shock, trade policy after the Supreme Court ruling, the Fed under a new chair, and the future of the dollar: reserves, gold and stablecoins.
Read the full briefing (PDF) →
The briefing at a glance
The US economy grew 2.1% in 2025, and the Federal Reserve projects 2.3% for 2026, driven by consumers and a massive AI investment cycle (about $794 bn of hyperscaler capex this year). The Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have kept Brent above $100 and pushed CPI inflation to 3.4% in August; unemployment is 4.1%. Federal debt passed $40 tn on 19 August, the FY2026 deficit is projected at $2.1 tn, and the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 5.26%.
Trade policy has been reshaped by the courts. In February the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, leading to about $100 bn of refunds. A temporary 10% surcharge was followed in July by Section 301 tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 economies, which now face litigation of their own. Diplomacy runs through summits and envoys: Xi Jinping's state visit in September produced a $30 bn tariff deal, and talks with Russia's envoy continued. Record oil output, expected at 13.8 mb/d, cushions the energy shock and lifts US producers, while partners negotiate tariffs case by case.
On 16 September the Fed, chaired by Kevin Warsh since May, raised rates for the first time after five holds, to 3.75-4.00%, citing oil and inflation. Higher US rates support the dollar and tighten financing conditions worldwide. The dollar still accounts for 57% of global FX reserves. Washington rejects a digital dollar and backs private stablecoins instead: the market passed $320 bn in April, and the GENIUS Act takes full effect by January 2027.
The numbers that matter
Figures as reported on 29 September 2026. Sources are listed below and on each slide of the PDF.
Five parts, eighteen pages
- 01
Economy and society
Solid growth driven by consumers and an AI investment cycle worth about 1.8% of GDP, while the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz push energy prices and headline inflation up. Debt has reached $40 tn and 10-year yields exceed 5%.
- 02
America and the world
The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs in February 2026; after a temporary Section 122 surcharge, new Section 301 duties of 10-12.5% apply to 60 economies. September brought Xi Jinping's state visit and the Dmitriev talks.
- 03
The case for engaging Washington
What allies, rivals and investors gain from dealing with the US, and why deals remain transactional and reversible.
- 04
The monetary dimension
The Fed's first hike after five holds, the dollar's 57% share of reserves, gold near $4,200 and a $320 bn stablecoin market under the GENIUS Act, with no US central bank digital currency.
- 05
Areas for further analysis
Midterms, Fed independence, debt dynamics, trade law, the Middle East, the AI boom, China, alliances and labour supply.
What to remember
Resilient growth, sticky inflation
AI investment and consumers keep growth near 2%; oil keeps inflation above 3%.
Trade policy reset by the courts
IEEPA tariffs struck down and refunded; Section 301 duties now carry the strategy.
Energy power in an oil shock
Record output cushions the US, but Hormuz keeps Brent above $100.
The dollar still dominates
57% of reserves and a rising Fed rate, while debt reaches $40 tn.
Main sources
- BEA: GDP 2025 and Q2 2026 estimates
- BLS: CPI and Employment Situation (Aug 2026)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement (16 Sep 2026)
- CBO; PBS: federal debt and deficit
- EIA; Trading Economics: oil, yields, gold
- IMF COFER data brief (1 Jul 2026)
- Goldman Sachs: AI investment (Aug 2026)
- CoinDesk; US Treasury: GENIUS Act rulemaking
Official data are cross-checked with independent sources. This note is for information only and is not investment advice.