AD International Russia in 2026
A war economy under sanctions, the US-Russia channel after the Dmitriev talks in Washington, and the monetary dimension: ruble, reserves, frozen assets and the digital ruble.
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The briefing at a glance
Russia's war-driven boom has given way to near-stagnation. Growth slowed to 1.0% in 2025 and the central bank expects 0-1% in 2026. Inflation was 6.3% in early September, and the key rate is held at 14%. The budget deficit reached RUB 5.79 tn in January-August, already 50% above the full-year plan, as Ukrainian strikes on refineries and US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil squeeze oil revenues. Since 2022 many official statistics have been restricted, so figures should be read with caution.
The pivot to Asia works, but on China's terms: 99% of Russia-China trade is settled in rubles and yuan, and the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is stuck on price. Diplomacy with Washington restarted in September after a six-month pause. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and Kirill Dmitriev held talks in Washington on 28-29 September. An energy ceasefire, a Black Sea grain corridor and trilateral talks are on the table. Territory, security guarantees, sanctions and about $300 bn of frozen reserves still block a settlement.
Russia's de-dollarisation is forced rather than chosen. Trade runs through rubles, yuan, the SPFS messaging system and, increasingly, crypto platforms. The central bank sold 43.5 t of gold in the first half of 2026 to cover the deficit, and the largest banks have offered the digital ruble to the public since 1 September.
The numbers that matter
Figures as reported on 29 September 2026. Sources are listed below and on each slide of the PDF.
Five parts, eighteen pages
- 01
Economy and society
From a war-driven boom to near-stagnation: inflation at 6.3%, a deficit already 50% above the full-year plan, refinery strikes, and a pivot to Asia on China's terms.
- 02
War, peace track and the US
From the Alaska summit to renewed talks in September 2026, including Kirill Dmitriev's meetings with US Treasury and Energy officials; territory, security guarantees, sanctions and frozen assets remain blocked.
- 03
The case for a US-Russia deal
What each side would gain, and why any opening depends on a Ukraine settlement, Congress and the EU.
- 04
The monetary dimension
De-dollarisation by necessity: 99% of Russia-China trade in rubles and yuan, SPFS, gold sales to cover the deficit, and the mass rollout of the digital ruble since 1 September 2026.
- 05
Areas for further analysis
Domestic politics, the war economy, regions, the Arctic, China, the Global South, Europe, technology and data reliability.
What to remember
An economy near stagnation
Growth of 0-1% in 2026, inflation above 6%, a 14% key rate and a deficit well beyond plan.
A pivot east with limits
Asia buys Russian energy, but China sets the terms, as Power of Siberia 2 shows.
Diplomacy restarted, no settlement
The Dmitriev talks keep the US channel open; territory, guarantees and sanctions remain blocked.
Forced de-dollarisation
Rubles and yuan, SPFS, gold sales and the digital ruble: a system built around exclusion.
Main sources
- Bank of Russia: key rate decision (11 Sep 2026)
- Rosstat via Interfax: GDP 2025 and Q1 2026
- Finance Ministry via TASS: budget Jan-Aug 2026
- TASS; The Moscow Times / Reuters (29 Sep 2026)
- House of Commons Library (15 Sep 2026)
- White & Case: EU 21st sanctions package
- Kitco: Bank of Russia gold sales (Jul 2026)
- Asia Times: Power of Siberia 2 (Jul 2026)
Official data are cross-checked with independent sources. This note is for information only and is not investment advice.